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2016年1 – 4月澳洲市场：铁矿石上涨，澳元升值。

从1月中旬到4月底，澳元兑美元从0.6830最高飙升至0.7828，涨幅近15%。澳元的升势与一系列经济事件吻合，包括商品全面复苏、市场对美联储政策预期的转变、日本实施负利率、欧洲进一步降息，以及因澳洲联储（RBA）上半年降息预期减弱，澳大利亚债券利率上涨了25个基点。

澳元强势反弹是哪三大因素造成的？
1. 大宗商品暴力反弹
大宗商品方面，年初至今，铁矿石价格呈现一波暴力反弹，从而拉动商品货币澳元不断升值。从1月低点算起，芝商所 (CME Group) 旗下62%品位铁矿石期货价格迄今大涨65%，至57.41美元/吨。这波价格反弹的支撑因素可能主要来自于中国钢厂趁着钢价反弹之际开足马力生产，从而带动原材料采购，且澳大利亚部分矿石供应出现中断。

原油价格近期一路走高亦助推澳元升势，虽然多哈会谈的失败导致油价一度大幅跳空回落，但是油价随后强势反弹，甚至仍不断刷新今年以来的高点。鉴于市场风险情绪回归，以原油为首的大宗商品价格在未来的一段时间里仍有望持续上涨。
2. 美国推迟加息打压美元
大宗商品价格上扬是一个原因，澳元的涨势主要还是源自于美国推迟加息，美联储对市场安抚的一种鸽派姿态，导致短暂的全球投资者风险偏好的上升，使得大宗商品以及部分高风险资产都得到了一些比较明显的反弹机会，这是影响包括澳元在内的高风险资产的深层次原因。

美元方面，美国统计局4月中旬公布了美国3月新屋开工率，录得-8.8%，远低于预期的-0.7%，这表明一季度美国房地产已经开始降温，经济也大幅下滑，给投资者对于美国加息的预期又增添了额外的顾虑。美联储对未来的加息犹豫不决，美元一落千丈，澳元等非美货币价格乘胜追击，纷纷扩大涨幅。

3. 本地向好数据提供支撑
回到澳洲国内，近来本地经济数据普遍向好是澳元表现坚挺的另一重要原因。最新数据显示，澳洲的经济增长率已经加速至3%，主要得益于国内消费需求走强，失业率也由1月高点6%回落至5.8%，就业岗位增加2.6万，远好于预期值1.7万和前值0.03万。种种迹象表明，本地经济正逐渐从矿业衰退中恢复过来，同时彻底打消了澳洲在一两年内出现经济衰退的疑虑。

国内经济继续增长，矿业投资增加，非矿业产业需求可观，劳动力市场改善，然而全球低通胀和低利率，导致澳元走高，打压了澳洲通货膨胀以及劳动力成本增速，这在一定程度上增加了日后澳洲联储降低利率的可能性。
澳洲联储拒绝强势澳元
针对澳元近期的强势表现，澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)再现口头干预，称澳元或有上涨过度的风险，并暗示外汇市场将再度成为联储决策的风向标。其他联储高级官员也对澳元高企表示关切，并表示全球其他央行都希望实现自己本币汇率更具竞争力。

最新公布的澳洲联储会议纪要显示其对澳元强势不怎么满意。联储甚至为了澳元走高讨论适当的货币宽松政策。无论如何，这复杂化了经济再调整并对通胀造成压力。似乎联储此次的说辞比之前更强硬一些。

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FLSmidth enters into strategic agreement with Wirtgen Group

Events Global cement and minerals processing leader FLSmidth has partnered with Wirtgen Group company Kleemann for the supply of cone crushers for mobile applications in the construction industry. Kleemann is the global technology leader within the road and construction machinery segment.

The long-term cooperation agreement between the two industry majors leverages FLSmidth’s technology leadership in cone crushers and Kleemann’s lead position in mobile crushing in the construction and aggregate industry.

Group Executive Vice President of the Minerals Division in FLSmidth Manfred Schaffer described the alliance as a part of FLSmidth’s strategy to develop technology in partnership with leading peers. With FLSmidth being the main provider of productivity within the minerals and cement segment, and Kleemann having a strong foothold in the construction industry, it presented a unique opportunity for FLSmidth to expand into adjacent markets, he added.

Keeping Whyalla open essential to Arrium survival, says administrator

r390_54_1013_842_w1200_h678_fmax A first meeting of Arrium’s creditors is being held today, with the iron and steel business’s administrator saying the future hinges on the Whyalla’s steelworks.

Mark Mentha of insolvency firm KordaMentha said most of the company, which owes around $4 billion, is in good shape, but was exposed to the survival of Whyalla. Arrium, which entered voluntary administration this month, has said it was undertaking studies on the effects of mothballing the loss-making plant.

Turning the steel factory around was vital to both Arrium and the community, Mentha told the ABC.

“It’s the front end of the business where we dig the ore out of the ground and feed that into the mill starts the whole steel process,” he told AM.

“In Whyalla, in particular, many of the businesses in that town are in some way connected to the steel works. So it’s a business that is very much interwoven into the fabric of that community and the state of South Australia.

The creditors meeting is being held in Sydney and streamed to workers in SA.

Meanwhile, the Australian Workers Union has called on the federal government to consider co-investment in the steel facility, with modernising to supply the upcoming offshore patrol vessels a “golden opportunity” for Arrium.

“In the case that Australian steelmaking operations, like the Whyalla steelworks, would require an upgrade to manufacture the grade of steel required, the Government should look to enter into a co-investment arrangement,” AWU national secretary Scott McDine told The Advertiser.

Record numbers attend Bauma 2016

bma_pr_2016_bauma-2016-aus-der-Vogelperspektive_IMG_800-604x270 Approximately 580, 000 people from 200 countries attended bauma, highlighting continued strength in the global mining industry.

This attendance figure is an increase of more than nine per cent compared to previous years, with a total of 3423 exhibitors from 58 different countries showcasing their developments, innovations, and products. They presented over a record exhibition space size of 605 000m2, while 63 per cent of exhibitors came from outside of Germany, higher than previous fairs.

Chairman and CEO of Messe München, Klaus Dittrich said, “The response from the participants this year was amazing. The visitors at bauma always come looking to invest, but this year the exhibitors’ order books filled up much faster than expected.”

“Many exhibitors are talking about a record level of demand at bauma 2016; that is an extremely positive sign in this current uncertain climate.”

Managing partners in the Wirtgen Group, Jürgen and Stefan Wirtgen, saying, “Bauma as the leading trade fair has always been a kind of barometer for the industry and from the start it had a very special significance for our company. Our presentation at this year’s bauma is the most successful so far in the history of the company.”

The fair is also a major platform for debuting the latest innovations for a worldwide trade audience.

The VDMA Association for Construction Machinery and Building Material Machines chairman Johann Sailer said, “Bauma is the ideal platform for presenting innovative new developments, because it has a big impact in the industry around the world. Again in 2016 the world’s largest show of construction machinery will deliver impetus for further growth in our sector.”

Managing Director and CEO of Komatsu Europe Masatoshi Morishita said, “We make use of the attention bauma attracts to present our innovations. This event is a milestone for the industry. It’s not only Komatsu that tries to get certain machines ready in time for bauma. This trade show really drives the entire industry forward.”

The next bauma will be held in Munich between April 8 and 14 in 2019.

A $100 million “global first” innovation precinct is coming to Sydney

Malcolm-Turnbull-china-640x332 Australia is set to get a “global first” $100 million innovation precinct that will foster innovation, support local startups and drive commercialisation.

Malcolm Turnbull announced the partnership between the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and the University of New South Wales during his first trip to China as prime minister.

The deal will see a $100 million Torch Precinct established on the university’s campus.

The Torch precincts have been operating in China for nearly 20 years and now generate 7% of the country’s GDP.

The UNSW precinct, the first of its kind outside of China, could contribute $1 billion to Australia’s GDP in its first ten years, according to a Deloitte study.

UNSW president Ian Jacobs says the precinct is a “global first”.

“[It] has the potential to reset the Australia-China bilateral relationship and boost the nation’s innovation system,” Jacobs says in a statement.

“This is about future-proofing our national competitiveness by strategically positioning Australia as China becomes the world’s largest investor in R&D and the 21st century’s science and technology superpower.

“The Torch partnership is an important milestone in the further development of Sydney as Australia’s global innovation city.”

A group of eight Chinese companies have already committed $30 million to the program, with an aim to build investment to $100 million.

The industry partners will establish incubator spaces on the Kensington campus before the precinct is constructed by 2025.

During his trip to China, Turnbull also officially unveiled the startup landing pad in Shanghai, joining other locations in Silicon Valley and Tel Aviv.

Rio Tinto suppliers to wait up to 120 days for payment

Suppliers to Rio Tinto will be waiting twice as long for accounts to be resolved after the company announced it would extend it’s terms of payment to 90 days.

The West Australian suggested the move would give the company’s balance sheet a boost ahead of the departure of CEO Sam Walsh in July.

It is understood tens of thousands of suppliers and contractors around the world will be affected, who are outraged over the problems the move could introduce to a sector already under significant price pressure.

This is the second change to terms of payment dictated by Rio Tinto in nine months, when Rio Tinto shifted the goalposts from 30 to 45 days for payment of accounts.

In some cases time for payment could be blown out to 120 days, given that Rio Tinto only pays its bills at the end of the month of receipt of invoice.

A spokesman for Rio Tinto said the change was intended to “free up cash and reduce working capital so that we can preserve and maintain jobs and suppliers in tough global environment for commodities”.

BHP changed their terms of payment shortly after Rio’s last change, from 30 days to 60 days, leaving FMG the most prompt paying iron ore major in the Pilbara, keeping their terms at 30 days.

A spokesman for FMG said the company had no plans to change their terms.

Arrium enters voluntary administration

arrium1-300x270 Steel and iron ore business Arrium announced this morning that it has appointed Grant Thornton as administrators.

“After considering the available alternatives, in the current circumstances it has become clear to the board of Arrium that it has, unfortunately, been left with no option than to place the relevant companies into voluntary administration in order to protect the interests of stakeholders,” it said in a statement to the ASX.

The ABC reports that Arrium owes its bankers $2.8 billion, trade creditors $1 billion and employees $500 million in entitlements.

Arrium, which split from BHP Billiton in 2000 as OneSteel, employs 7,000 in Australia, and over 1,000 at its Whyalla steelworks.

The fate of the steelworks has been in question for some time. Arrium announced in February that it was considering putting the plant and the company’s iron ore operations in care and maintenance.

Speculation about the company’s future intensified earlier this week when Arrium’s lending syndicate rejected a recapitalisation plan from vulture fund GSO Capital. This would’ve seen lenders lose 50 cents in the dollar.

It borrowed heavily to expand, buying up iron ore mines near the ore market’s peak

The management has been blamed for the company’s situation, including by industry minister Christopher Pyne.

“If there is anybody that needs to look at themselves, it’s the Arrium management, not the banks,” Business Spectator reports him as saying.

“Arrium has a $2bn debt. That is a problem for Arrium, incurred by Arrium management. It is no fault of the workers of Whyalla and it’s no fault of the state or commonwealth governments.”

Downer and FMG end Christmas Creek contract

Christmas-Creek-Ore-Processing-Facility88 Downer’s contract at Fortescue Metals‘ Christmas Creek mine will not be renewed as the miner moves to a an owner-operator model.

The contractor made the announcement yesterday, stating it has been in discussions with FMG about the transition of the mine to Fortescue following the expiry of the current mining contract.

“Over the course of the next six months it is Downer’s intention to provide a safe and orderly handover of the Christmas Creek mine to Fortescue,” Downer said in a company statement.

Fortescue Metals added: “A comprehensive change management plan has been developed. Production from Christmas Creek is not expected to be impacted during the transition.”

FMG CEO Nev Power thanked Downer for its work at the site.

“The Downer team have been involved with mining at Christmas Creek since the outset and have played an important role in Fortescue’s development of our facilities in the Chichester Hub.

“Adoption of an owner operator model will further reduce Fortescue’s costs through ongoing improvement of the efficiency and productivity of our Christmas Creek mining operations.”

It is unknown how the move will affect the approximately 900 workers at the site.

Downer has been working at the mine since 2010, and was handed Macmahon’s former contract last year after FMG merged two service contracts into one, creating a contract worth $500 million for Downer.

Despite the move off Christmas Creek, Downer does not expect the transition to have an effect on its 2016 financial results.

Author: yinghui